Tryin To Reason With the 2010 Hurricane Season

Today, June 1, marks the start Hurricane Season - traditionally my most favorite and anticipated season of the year.

Every June 1 I write about hoping for the coast's long deserved and long overdue Category 6 hurricane. Its a hurricane that is so strong that its never been recorded at that intensity before. My dream hurricane (the "Great Undeveloper") never makes formal landfall. The center of it comes within 5 miles of the coast at the mouth of the Rio Grande on the US / Mexico border. There it moves north and east, keeping the eye five miles off shore so it retains a constant energy source. It follows and scours the coast of the Gulf of Mexico in a perfect arc along the Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida coasts to the Florida Keys. There it follows the islands northeast to Key Largo where it miraculously changes course once again and follows the entire east coast of the United States (including the Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay inland to Philadelphia) to Calais Maine where it becomes extratropical in the Bay of Fundy. At the conclusion of its trip along the coast it has removed all condominiums, rejuvenated the coastal sands, and cleared out the vermin known as the human race that has done so much to destroy the integrity of the coast.

However this year, 2010, poses a special case for coast lovers, even someone as twisted in their logic as I am.

This year we have an even more horrific disaster, a real one, in the Gulf that further exacerbates the problem. Thank you very much British Petroleum and thank you even MORE George Bush's administration for looking the other way in the permitting process and allowing this disaster to unfold.

Since April 20, at least 12,000 barrels of oil (42 gallons per barrel) and maybe 19,000 barrels of oil have been spewing daily into the ocean just off the Louisiana coast. Much of that oil is now or soon will be coming ashore somewhere along the Gulf Coast from west of the mouth of the Mississippi River east to who knows where along the Florida coast.

Because of the oil spill coastal habitats are going to be overly stressed this year and I worry that the spill on top of a large scale hurricane could be too much for existing habitats to bear there. Because of that, for 2010 I'm moving my dream a little further east.

For the 2010 season I'm still hoping for a great undeveloper hurricane to come ashore and cleanse the coast but this year I am hoping that it makes landfall just five miles off the coast of Miami and then moves northward along the coast to Calais, Maine. At least half the coastline of the United States will still be cleansed of condos and other eyesores and while this happens the Gulf Coast will be given some much needed time to heal.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a more active than usual hurricane season in the Caribbean region. NOAA is giving us this prediction of activity:

We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:

* 14-23 Named Storms,
* 8-14 Hurricanes
* 3-7 Major Hurricanes
* An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

Three to 7 major hurricanes is fine with me. Maybe a couple will be Category 5 storms. If they come ashore and do some reconstruction of habitats so much the better. This year I'm hoping the most damage occurs at and in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, a city in dire need of huge rearrangement.

So join me in welcoming in this most auspicious and potentially regenerative season. All day today I will be playing this classic song by Jimmy Buffett each hour at the top of the hour to help welcome in the season. You might consider doing the same.